Population Estimate and Projections for the City of Los Angeles Community Plan Areas, Wendel Cox, December 28, 2018
-->
Wendell Cox Consultancy
demographia.com
·
publicpurpose.com
PO Box 841 · Belleville, Illinois 62222 USA
DRAFT
Community Plan Areas
The city of Los Angeles is
divided into 35 Community Plan Areas (CPAs) , through which citizens
participate in preparing community plans under the auspices of the Department
of City Planning.
New Population Estimates
The latest population estimates
for the CPAs are from the 2010 United States Census.1 There is a
need for later estimates as community plans are considered throughout the city.
Using available sources, Demographia has
used the best available US Census Bureau trend data to estimate populations of
each CPA for July 1, 2016 and to develop a projection for April 1, 2020 (the
next U.S. Census date). These data were modeled using U. S. Census Bureau
resources as described below.
2016 (July 1) Population Estimate
Census tract population estimates
from the latest2 American Community Survey (ACS), 2012/2016 were
used to allocate the city population to the CPAs. ACS is a U.S. Bureau of the
Census five year, rolling survey of the entire nation.3 This is the
only national survey that provides estimates at the census tract level between
the 2010 and 2020 censuses (see Box below). A 2012/2016 population estimate is
obtained by applying the rate of population change for the census tracts in
each CPA from the 2010 Census to the 2012/2016 American Community Survey.
The 2012/2016 CPA population
estimates were scaled proportionately to reconcile to the American Community
Survey estimated population of 3,918,872 for the city of Los Angeles in
2012/2016.4 This is
 |
1 As reported in the City of Los
Angeles, Department of City Planning Plan
for a Healthy Los Angeles, "Health Profiles: City Neighborhoods,"
http://healthyplan.la/interactive/neighborhoods/,
accessed December 14, 2017. 2 Released
December 2017.
3 Data for larger areas, such as states, metropolitan
areas and larger cities, is published annually.
4 The post-2010 estimates and projections in this
report are rounded to the nearest 100.
the 2014 "middle year"
estimate, reflecting the fact that the middle year (or approximate average
year) of the 2012-2016 American Community Survey is 2014).
A July 1, 2016 population
estimate for each CPA5 is modeled by extending the 2010 to the
middle year (2014) of the ACS 2012/2016 survey. The reported estimates have
been scaled to equal the Census Bureau 2016 estimated population of 3,976,322.6
These data are shown in Table 1
2020 (April 1) Population Projection
A city
population projection at the date of the next US Census (April 1, 2020) is
developed for each CPA by extending the same annual growth rate as used in the
2010 to 2012/2016, above. This projection yields a 2020 population of
4,090,500. These data are also shown in Table 1.
Additional "high" scenario
and "low" scenario projections are provided. The "high"
scenario assumes an annual population increase from 2016 to 2020 equal to the
fastest annual rate achieved between 2010 and 2016 (0.86 percent in 2011-2012).
The "low" scenario assumes an annual population increase from 2016 to
2020 equal to the slowest rate achieved between 2010 and 2016 (0.86 percent in
2015-2016). These data are shown in Table 2.
 |
 |
5 Port of Los Angeles 2010 figure modeled by Demographia.
6 U.S. Census Bureau data is the primary source for
population data in the United States. The State of California's Department of
Finance (DOF) also provides population estimates, which are routinely
reconciled to the decennial Census figures produced by the Census Bureau. DOF's
January 2016 population estimate for the city of Los Angeles was 3.999 million
for January of 2016, somewhat above the Census Bureau's estimate for six months
later (July 1,
2016). During the 2000s, the DOF population
estimates were also high. Three months before the 2010 U.S. census, DOF
reported the city of Los Angeles population at 4,095,000. The 2010 census
figure was 300,000 lower, at 3,792,000. In 2010, DOF recalibrated its estimates
based upon the U.S. census.
BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION
Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, a St. Louis, MO-IL based
firm specializing in demographics and public policy and a native of the Echo
Park district of Los Angeles. He has conducted research and lectured around the
world on urban policy.
He earned a BA in Government from
California State University, Los Angeles and an MBA from Pepperdine University.
He was appointed to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation
Commission (LACTC) by Mayor Tom Bradley, serving with 10 other board members
who were all elected officials (LACTC was combined with the Southern California
Rapid Transit District to form the Los Angeles County Metropolitan
Transportation Authority in 1993).
He serves on the Board of
Advisors of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University, is a
senior fellow at the Center for Opportunity Urbanism in Houston and senior
fellow for housing affordability and municipal policy at the Frontier Centre
for Public Policy in Winnipeg. He served as a visiting professor at the
Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris, a French national
university. He also served as vice-president of CODATU, a Lyon (France) based
international organization dedicated to improving mobility in developing world
cities.
Wendell Cox is author of Demographia World Urban Areas,
which provides annual estimates of population and urban density for all
identified built-up urban areas of at least 500,000 population. He is co-author
of the Demographia International Housing
Affordability Survey (now
in its 13th annual edition), which rates housing affordability in more than 400
metropolitan areas in nine nations.
Table 1
City of Los Angeles
Community Planning Areas:
Population
Principal Data
|
||||||
2010
Census
|
2016
Estimate
|
2020
Projection
|
2010-2020
|
2010-
|
% of
|
|
Community
Planning District
|
(April 1)
|
(July 1)
|
(April 1)
|
Change
|
2020 %
|
Growth
|
Central
City
|
37,675
|
39,500
|
40,600
|
2,900
|
7.8%
|
1.0%
|
Central
City North
|
22,135
|
23,700
|
24,400
|
2,300
|
10.2%
|
0.8%
|
Hollywood
|
198,234
|
205,800
|
211,700
|
13,500
|
6.8%
|
4.5%
|
Westlake
|
110,781
|
117,600
|
121,000
|
10,200
|
9.2%
|
3.4%
|
Wilshire
|
278,409
|
294,200
|
302,600
|
24,200
|
8.7%
|
8.0%
|
Boyle
Heights
|
84,619
|
88,300
|
90,800
|
6,200
|
7.3%
|
2.1%
|
Northeast
Los Angeles
|
237,180
|
241,600
|
248,600
|
11,400
|
4.8%
|
3.8%
|
Silver
Lake - Echo Park - Elysian Valley
|
70,088
|
72,000
|
74,000
|
3,900
|
5.6%
|
1.3%
|
South
Los Angeles
|
270,354
|
275,800
|
283,800
|
13,400
|
5.0%
|
4.4%
|
Southeast
Los Angeles
|
278,337
|
293,400
|
301,900
|
23,600
|
8.5%
|
7.8%
|
West
Adams - Baldwin Hills - Liemert
|
175,040
|
174,300
|
179,400
|
4,400
|
2.5%
|
1.5%
|
Arleta -
Pacoima
|
103,252
|
102,200
|
105,200
|
1,900
|
1.9%
|
0.6%
|
Chatsworth
- Porter Ranch
|
93,071
|
104,000
|
107,000
|
13,900
|
15.0%
|
4.6%
|
Granada
Hills - Knollwood
|
60,785
|
64,700
|
66,600
|
5,800
|
9.6%
|
1.9%
|
Mission
Hills - Panorama City - North Hills
|
142,294
|
151,200
|
155,600
|
13,300
|
9.4%
|
4.4%
|
Northridge
|
66,984
|
73,500
|
75,700
|
8,700
|
13.0%
|
2.9%
|
Sun
Valley - La Tuna Canyon
|
88,772
|
85,600
|
88,100
|
(700)
|
-0.8%
|
-0.2%
|
Sunland - Tujunga - Lake View
Terrace - Shadow
Hills - East
La Tuna Canyon
|
61,763
|
60,900
|
62,600
|
800
|
1.4%
|
0.3%
|
Sylmar
|
78,862
|
82,800
|
85,100
|
6,200
|
7.9%
|
2.1%
|
Canoga
Park - Winnetka - Woodland Hills - West Hills
|
173,250
|
184,600
|
189,900
|
16,700
|
9.6%
|
5.5%
|
Encino -
Tarzana
|
72,018
|
77,600
|
79,800
|
7,800
|
10.8%
|
2.6%
|
North
Hollywood - Valley Village
|
136,616
|
144,500
|
148,700
|
12,100
|
8.8%
|
4.0%
|
Reseda -
West Van Nuys
|
107,754
|
118,000
|
121,400
|
13,600
|
12.7%
|
4.5%
|
Sherman
Oaks - Studio City - Toluca Lake - Cahuenga Pass
|
78,803
|
88,500
|
91,000
|
12,200
|
15.5%
|
4.0%
|
Van Nuys
- North Sherman Oaks
|
159,035
|
172,000
|
176,900
|
17,900
|
11.2%
|
5.9%
|
Bel Air
- Beverly Crest
|
20,934
|
19,300
|
19,900
|
(1,000)
|
-4.9%
|
-0.3%
|
Brentwood
- Pacific Palisades
|
57,049
|
57,600
|
59,300
|
2,300
|
3.9%
|
0.8%
|
Palms -
Mar Vista - Del Rey
|
110,715
|
122,600
|
126,200
|
15,500
|
14.0%
|
5.1%
|
Venice
|
36,962
|
35,500
|
36,500
|
(500)
|
-1.2%
|
-0.2%
|
West Los
Angeles
|
74,952
|
82,900
|
85,300
|
10,300
|
13.8%
|
3.4%
|
Westchester
- Playa del Rey
|
55,073
|
58,000
|
59,600
|
4,500
|
8.2%
|
1.5%
|
Westwood
|
51,459
|
55,300
|
56,900
|
5,400
|
10.6%
|
1.8%
|
Harbor
Gateway
|
40,136
|
41,700
|
42,900
|
2,800
|
6.9%
|
0.9%
|
San
Pedro
|
76,617
|
80,200
|
82,500
|
5,900
|
7.7%
|
2.0%
|
Wilmngton
- Harbor City
|
77,237
|
85,100
|
87,600
|
10,400
|
13.4%
|
3.4%
|
Port of
Los Angeles
|
1,807
|
1,800
|
1,900
|
100
|
5.1%
|
0.0%
|
Total Population
|
3,789,052
|
3,976,300
|
4,091,000
|
301,948
|
8.0%
|
100.0%
|
Notes:
2000 and 2010 from City of Los Angeles, Department of City Planning
(Port of Los Angeles 2010 is a Demographia
estimate) Post 2010 estimates and projections by Demographia.
Demographia , 2017
Table 2
City of Los Angeles
Community Planning Areas: Population
Supplementary
Data
|
||||
2012-2016
|
||||
2000 Census
|
Estimate (2014
|
2020 High
|
2020 Low
|
|
Community Planning District
|
(April
1)
|
Estimate)
|
Projection
|
Projection
|
Central City
|
25,255
|
38,900
|
40,700
|
40,500
|
Central City North
|
24,134
|
23,200
|
24,500
|
24,400
|
Hollywood
|
210,824
|
203,500
|
212,500
|
211,100
|
Westlake
|
103,532
|
115,500
|
121,400
|
120,700
|
Wilshire
|
292,059
|
289,300
|
303,700
|
301,800
|
Boyle Heights
|
86,616
|
87,200
|
91,200
|
90,600
|
Northeast Los Angeles
|
241,465
|
240,400
|
249,500
|
247,900
|
Silver Lake - Echo Park -
Elysian Valley
|
77,033
|
71,400
|
74,300
|
73,800
|
South Los Angeles
|
260,219
|
274,300
|
284,800
|
283,000
|
Southeast Los Angeles
|
254,796
|
288,800
|
302,900
|
301,100
|
West Adams - Baldwin Hills -
Liemert
|
172,913
|
174,700
|
180,000
|
178,900
|
Arleta - Pacoima
|
98,072
|
102,700
|
105,500
|
104,900
|
Chatsworth - Porter Ranch
|
84,779
|
100,500
|
107,400
|
106,700
|
Granada Hills - Knollwood
|
57,056
|
63,500
|
66,800
|
66,400
|
Mission Hills - Panorama City -
North Hills
|
135,058
|
148,500
|
156,100
|
155,200
|
Northridge
|
62,785
|
71,500
|
75,900
|
75,500
|
Sun Valley - La Tuna Canyon
|
86,391
|
86,700
|
88,400
|
87,900
|
Sunland - Tujunga - Lake View
Terrace - Shadow Hills - East
La Tuna Canyon
|
58,228
|
61,200
|
62,800
|
62,500
|
Sylmar
|
69,575
|
81,600
|
85,400
|
84,900
|
Canoga Park - Winnetka -
Woodland Hills - West Hills
|
166,260
|
181,100
|
190,600
|
189,400
|
Encino - Tarzana
|
70,227
|
75,800
|
80,100
|
79,600
|
North Hollywood - Valley
Village
|
135,954
|
142,100
|
149,200
|
148,300
|
Reseda - West Van Nuys
|
98,965
|
114,700
|
121,800
|
121,000
|
Sherman Oaks - Studio City -
Toluca Lake - Cahuenga Pass
|
72,988
|
85,300
|
91,300
|
90,800
|
Van Nuys - North Sherman Oaks
|
158,620
|
167,900
|
177,500
|
176,400
|
Bel Air - Beverly Crest
|
20,254
|
19,800
|
19,900
|
19,800
|
Brentwood - Pacific Palisades
|
54,110
|
57,500
|
59,500
|
59,200
|
Palms - Mar Vista - Del Rey
|
110,044
|
118,800
|
126,600
|
125,800
|
Venice
|
37,758
|
36,000
|
36,600
|
36,400
|
West Los Angeles
|
71,944
|
80,300
|
85,600
|
85,000
|
Westchester - Playa del Rey
|
51,255
|
57,100
|
59,800
|
59,500
|
Westwood
|
49,306
|
54,100
|
57,100
|
56,800
|
Harbor Gateway
|
39,685
|
41,200
|
43,100
|
42,800
|
San Pedro
|
76,173
|
79,100
|
82,800
|
82,300
|
Wilmngton - Harbor City
|
75,506
|
82,600
|
87,900
|
87,300
|
Port of Los Angeles
|
1,804
|
1,800
|
1,900
|
1,900
|
Total Population
|
3,691,643
|
3,918,900
|
4,105,500
|
4,079,900
|
Notes:
2000 and 2010
from City of Los Angeles, Department of City
Planning (Port of Los Angeles
2010 is a Demographia
estimate) Post 2010 estimates and projections by Demographia.
Demographia , 2017
Comments